One of the most successful fringe meetings we have held at Party Conferences saw some 80-90 people packed into the room at the Birmingham ICC for the 2026 Conference on Sunday evening. The theme was Can the Conservatives still win under First Past the Post Voting? with speakers Sir Andy Street CBE (Conservative Party, Businessman and Former Mayor of West Midlands), Emma Best AM (City Hall Conservatives, Deputy Leader) and chaired by myself, Keith Best TD (Conservative Action for Electoral Reform, Chair).
First Past the Post could produce dramatic and unpredictable results at the next general election. Would a divided right hand Labour another large majority, leave millions of centre-right voters without representation or reward whichever party emerges strongest? Does the current system still offer Conservatives their best route back to government?
A timely discussion
The discussion with a lively Q&A session after the speeches was timely. As I said to start the meeting “We know from the new Prime Minister that electoral reform will be in the next Labour manifesto – if they win that will mean not a new referendum but a commitment to legislate so that the following election will be fought using proportional representation. Conservatives cannot ignore it but should we embrace it?”
I pointed out that under the current system the 2024 election had seen 63% of the seats taken by Labour on only 33% of the votes cast – two out of three voters had not wanted a Labour Government but they got one with a massive majority, yet on the lowest turnout for a winning party since the Second World war.
Conservatives have a proud record on electoral reform: Disraeli, Shaftesbury and Baldwin and, more recently, bringing in the single transferable vote for the Northern Ireland Assembly. I continued, “Indeed, every new legislative body that has been created in the UK in my lifetime is elected by proportional representation: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, Greater London Assembly, Scottish local government and Welsh local government now having the choice to put the matter to their electorate.”
Increasingly, elections to the House of Commons are the odd one out and look anomalous. Yet the choice of which form of proportional representation is decided upon is vital. I took a swipe at some forms of proportional representation – for example, I abhor the Party List system for the Welsh Senedd which gives voters no choice over which candidates are elected; if you are going to have a list system (which is not appropriate for the UK with its strong links to MPs representing constituencies) then it should be open with voters being able to rank the candidates.
The origins of Conservative Action for Electoral Reform
I told the audience that Conservative Action for Electoral Reform had been created in the anger at the aftermath of the February 1974 election in which the Conservatives won the popular vote (230,000 more than Labour) yet, because of the way our current voting system works, had failed to form the Government. It meant that when I became an MP in 1979, in the Government led by Margaret Thatcher, there were some 7 Cabinet Ministers and about 60 backbenchers who supported CAER. That enthusiasm had dissipated over the years with strong opposition from party leaders, but it is time to show not only how Conservatives can win under proportional representation but also how they can lose under the current system.
In current politics it is easier for the Left to combine than for the Right (and Conservatives have ruled out any deal with Reform or Restore). A close result at the next election could see a minority Labour Government propped up by the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru. Once again, the Conservatives could be cheated despite having the most popular leader. I reminded the audience of Edmund Burke: “A State without the means of some change is without the means of its conservation.”
“A State without the means of some change is without the means of its conservation.”
The danger of First Past the Post
The danger facing the Conservatives was exemplified recently by the Dover District Council by-election result in the ward of Guston, Kingsdown and St Margaret’s-at-Cliffe in August. The Greens won it on 28% (34 votes more than Reform). The combined Conservative, Reform and Restore vote was 55%.
Sir Andy Street made the point that, being elected by supplementary vote in the West Midlands, he reached out to a wider audience than his immediate supporters so as to pick up second preferences. He is living proof of how the personality and appeal of a politician matters so much more under a fairer voting system. He advocates a change for Westminster but to the supplementary vote rather than a fully proportional system. As he said, “you have to think in your policy offer about something that actually does provide people real answers and solutions and is not narrow in its appeal.”
We can’t leave the voting system to be decided by the Left
Emma Best argued that Conservatives should be a part of the conversation around changing the voting system and reminded us that the Tories had often been the party of electoral reform, through Prime Ministers such as Benjamin Disraeli and Stanley Baldwin, who both expanded the franchise. She wants to see a proportional system for Westminster, similar to the Additional Member System used in London, which had ensured the Conservatives had fair representation in a Labour-dominated city.
I concluded the meeting with the observation that the Conservatives are not populist, chasing every mercurial turn in public opinion, but are pragmatic and can see the writing on the wall. The British Social Attitudes survey has shown growing public support for electoral reform, with a consistent majority now wanting a change in the voting system for the House of Commons, the latest poll showing 53% in favour.
In any event, we know from the Prime Minister that it will be an issue at the next election. We cannot bury our heads in the sand but should use the opportunity to promote a fairer system that commands support from the public by giving each voter a true say in the democracy they elect.